Prelims1
Welterweight
Vicente Luque vs Niko Price
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Vicente Luque
Niko Price
75%
25%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
24-13-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
17-11
L1
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Luque: 61 sig / 0 TD ·
Price: 25 sig / 0 TD
Vicente Luque
Niko Price
23
Sig strikes landed
18
46
Sig strikes attempted
49
38
Total strikes landed
26
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
148s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Vicente Luque
"The Silent Assassin"
24-13-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
Blue corner
W2
Niko Price
"The Hybrid"
17-11
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—