Prelims1
Middleweight
Antonio Carlos Junior vs Jack Marshman
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Antonio Carlos Junior
Jack Marshman
47%
53%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 6"
73"
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
12-5
Career record
Δ 0 pp
24-10
W3
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Carlos Junior: 11 sig / 1 TD ·
Marshman: 1 sig / 0 TD
Antonio Carlos Junior
Jack Marshman
32
Sig strikes landed
36
89
Sig strikes attempted
83
45
Total strikes landed
45
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
6.1
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
175s
Control time
37s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Antonio Carlos Junior
"Cara de Sapato"
12-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
8 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—
Blue corner
W1
Jack Marshman
"The Hammer"
24-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—