Main
Middleweight
Thiago Santos vs Jack Hermansson
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Thiago Santos
Jack Hermansson
42%
58%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
34
Age
Δ 4y
29
23-11
Career record
Δ 4 pp
25-10
W2
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Santos: 28 sig / 0 TD ·
Hermansson: 5 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Santos
Jack Hermansson
26
Sig strikes landed
29
65
Sig strikes attempted
53
37
Total strikes landed
50
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
91s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Thiago Santos
"Marreta"
23-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
L
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
W2
Jack Hermansson
"The Joker"
25-10
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—