Main
Bantamweight
Raphael Assuncao vs Matthew Lopez
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis
·Chartway Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Raphael Assuncao
Matthew Lopez
74%
26%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
35
Age
Δ 4y
31
29-10
Career record
Δ 1 pp
11-4
W2
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Assuncao: 46 sig / 0 TD ·
Lopez: 34 sig / 1 TD
Raphael Assuncao
Matthew Lopez
39
Sig strikes landed
30
86
Sig strikes attempted
72
58
Total strikes landed
47
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.4
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
164s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Raphael Assuncao
29-10
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
L
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
Blue corner
W2
Matthew Lopez
11-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—