Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Joe Lauzon
Clay Guida
51%
49%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
34
Age
Δ 2y
36
28-17
Career record
Δ 2 pp
39-22
L1
Current streak
W1
18
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lauzon: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Guida: 24 sig / 0 TD
Joe Lauzon
Clay Guida
31
Sig strikes landed
35
78
Sig strikes attempted
85
45
Total strikes landed
53
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.5
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
65s
Control time
214s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Joe Lauzon
28-17
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
18 fights · 9-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
Blue corner
W1
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
39-22
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
14 fights · 8-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—