Main
Middleweight
Nate Marquardt vs Cezar Ferreira
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis
·Chartway Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nate Marquardt
Cezar Ferreira
72%
28%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
78"
39
Age
Δ 6y
33
35-20-2
Career record
Δ 2 pp
13-9
L2
Current streak
L1
14
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Marquardt: 36 sig / 0 TD ·
Ferreira: 47 sig / 2 TD
Nate Marquardt
Cezar Ferreira
23
Sig strikes landed
25
37
Sig strikes attempted
55
33
Total strikes landed
45
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
98s
Control time
198s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Nate Marquardt
"The Great"
35-20-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
14 fights · 5-9
Last 5
L
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
L
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
Blue corner
L1
Cezar Ferreira
"Mutante"
13-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—