Prelims1
Bantamweight
John Dodson vs Marlon Moraes
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis
·Chartway Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
John Dodson
Marlon Moraes
49%
51%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
33
Age
Δ 4y
30
23-12
Career record
Δ 0 pp
23-11-1
W1
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Dodson: 43 sig / 2 TD ·
Moraes: 45 sig / 1 TD
John Dodson
Marlon Moraes
54
Sig strikes landed
45
135
Sig strikes attempted
117
57
Total strikes landed
50
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
52s
Control time
48s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
John Dodson
"The Magician"
23-12
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
L
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
Blue corner
L1
Marlon Moraes
"Magic"
23-11-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—