Back to UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis
Main Heavyweight

Junior Albini vs Andrei Arlovski

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis ·Chartway Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Junior Albini
Andrei Arlovski
75% 25%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
27
Age
Δ 12y
39
15-6
Career record
Δ 14 pp
34-25
W1
Current streak
L5
1
UFC fights in our DB
9

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Albini: 48 sig / 0 TD · Arlovski: 92 sig / 0 TD
Junior Albini
Andrei Arlovski
43
Sig strikes landed
17
63
Sig strikes attempted
45
43
Total strikes landed
24
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.4
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
106s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Junior Albini

"Baby"
15-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
L5

Andrei Arlovski

"The Pitbull"
34-25 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database 9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
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L UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
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L UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
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L UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
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L UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—