Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Matt Brown
Diego Sanchez
34%
66%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
37
Age
Δ 1y
36
26-20
Career record
Δ 12 pp
31-14
L3
Current streak
L1
18
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Brown: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Sanchez: 12 sig / 0 TD
Matt Brown
Diego Sanchez
43
Sig strikes landed
41
78
Sig strikes attempted
96
54
Total strikes landed
61
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.3
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
52s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
26-20
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
18 fights · 9-9
Last 5
L
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
L
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
Blue corner
L1
Diego Sanchez
"Nightmare"
31-14
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
13 fights · 6-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
W
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—