Back to UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis
Prelims2 Light Heavyweight

Jake Collier vs Marcel Fortuna

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis ·Chartway Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Jake Collier
Marcel Fortuna
53% 47%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
13-11
Career record
Δ 15 pp
9-4
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Collier: 94 sig / 0 TD · Fortuna: 59 sig / 1 TD
Jake Collier
Marcel Fortuna
40
Sig strikes landed
37
83
Sig strikes attempted
75
54
Total strikes landed
48
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.2
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
115s
Control time
54s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
7%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Jake Collier

"The Prototype"
13-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
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W UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
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L UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
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W UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
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L UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
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Blue corner
L1

Marcel Fortuna

9-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
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