Back to UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis
Prelims2 Middleweight

Darren Stewart vs Karl Roberson

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis ·Chartway Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Darren Stewart
Karl Roberson
58% 42%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
27
Age
Δ 0y
27
L1
Current streak
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2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Stewart: 6 sig / 0 TD · Roberson: 17 sig / 1 TD
Darren Stewart
Karl Roberson
32
Sig strikes landed
38
65
Sig strikes attempted
73
50
Total strikes landed
53
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
235s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Darren Stewart

"The Dentist"
12-9 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
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Blue corner

Karl Roberson

"Baby K"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27