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Dustin Poirier vs Anthony Pettis

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis ·Chartway Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Dustin Poirier
Anthony Pettis
76% 24%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
30-10
Career record
Δ 4 pp
25-10
W1
Current streak
W1
18
UFC fights in our DB
12

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Poirier: 53 sig / 5 TD · Pettis: 34 sig / 1 TD
Dustin Poirier
Anthony Pettis
53
Sig strikes landed
45
106
Sig strikes attempted
95
67
Total strikes landed
57
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
149s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Dustin Poirier

"The Diamond"
30-10 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database 18 fights · 13-4
Last 5
W UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
L UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
W UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
Blue corner
W1

Anthony Pettis

"Showtime"
25-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
W UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
L UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
L UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
L UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—