🏆 Title fight
Main
Women's Strawweight
Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Rose Namajunas
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Rose Namajunas
64%
36%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 0"
65"
30
Age
Δ 5y
25
17-5
Career record
Δ 11 pp
16-8
W8
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Jedrzejczyk: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Namajunas: 15 sig / 0 TD
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Rose Namajunas
56
Sig strikes landed
62
134
Sig strikes attempted
164
79
Total strikes landed
87
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.5
0.5
Takedowns attempted
6.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
73s
Control time
217s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
17-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 8-0
Last 5
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—
Blue corner
W1
Rose Namajunas
"Thug"
16-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
L
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—