Main
Welterweight
Stephen Thompson vs Jorge Masvidal
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Stephen Thompson
Jorge Masvidal
34%
66%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
35
Age
Δ 2y
33
17-10-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
35-18
L1
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Thompson: 70 sig / 0 TD ·
Masvidal: 42 sig / 0 TD
Stephen Thompson
Jorge Masvidal
66
Sig strikes landed
70
146
Sig strikes attempted
147
76
Total strikes landed
78
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
60s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Stephen Thompson
"Wonderboy"
17-10-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
11 fights · 8-2
Last 5
L
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
D
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
Blue corner
L1
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
35-18
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
L
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—