Main
Middleweight
Johny Hendricks vs Paulo Costa
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Johny Hendricks
Paulo Costa
39%
61%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
34
Age
Δ 8y
26
18-9
Career record
Δ 14 pp
17-4
L1
Current streak
W2
18
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Hendricks: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Costa: 49 sig / 0 TD
Johny Hendricks
Paulo Costa
33
Sig strikes landed
49
62
Sig strikes attempted
92
41
Total strikes landed
59
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.0
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
125s
Control time
42s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
65%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Johny Hendricks
"Bigg Rigg"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
18 fights · 11-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
L
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—
L
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
Blue corner
W2
Paulo Costa
"The Eraser"
17-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—