Main
Women's Flyweight
Mara Romero Borella vs Kalindra Faria
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Mara Romero Borella
Kalindra Faria
39%
61%
Why
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Romero Borella: 3 sig / 1 TD ·
Faria: 0 sig / 0 TD
Mara Romero Borella
Kalindra Faria
37
Sig strikes landed
42
73
Sig strikes attempted
81
63
Total strikes landed
73
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
124s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mara Romero Borella
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Kalindra Faria
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Switch
Age
31