Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Beneil Dariush
Evan Dunham
82%
18%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
28
Age
Δ 7y
36
23-9-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
19-9-1
L1
Current streak
W4
11
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Dariush: 81 sig / 0 TD ·
Dunham: 36 sig / 1 TD
Beneil Dariush
Evan Dunham
59
Sig strikes landed
52
134
Sig strikes attempted
119
72
Total strikes landed
76
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.9
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
90s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Beneil Dariush
23-9-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
Blue corner
W4
Evan Dunham
19-9-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
15 fights · 9-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—