Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Fabricio Werdum
Walt Harris
77%
23%
Why
77"
Reach
77"
40
Age
Δ 6y
34
24-10-1
Career record
Δ 10 pp
14-10
L1
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Werdum: 0 sig / 1 TD ·
Harris: 0 sig / 0 TD
Fabricio Werdum
Walt Harris
51
Sig strikes landed
35
79
Sig strikes attempted
82
64
Total strikes landed
35
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.3
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
67s
Control time
33s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
67%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Fabricio Werdum
"Vai Cavalo"
24-10-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
L
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
Blue corner
W2
Walt Harris
"The Big Ticket"
14-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—