🏆 Title fight
Main
Flyweight
Demetrious Johnson vs Ray Borg
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Demetrious Johnson
Ray Borg
85%
15%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 3"
63"
31
Age
Δ 7y
24
28-3-1
Career record
Δ 14 pp
14-5
W8
Current streak
W2
16
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 5
Johnson: 64 sig / 8 TD ·
Borg: 13 sig / 3 TD
Demetrious Johnson
Ray Borg
64
Sig strikes landed
30
102
Sig strikes attempted
79
120
Total strikes landed
53
2.7
Takedowns landed
2.5
4.9
Takedowns attempted
8.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
438s
Control time
222s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Demetrious Johnson
"Mighty Mouse"
28-3-1
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
16 fights · 14-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
W
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
Blue corner
W2
Ray Borg
"The Tazmexican Devil"
14-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—