Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Tony Ferguson
Kevin Lee
57%
43%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
77"
34
Age
Δ 9y
25
27-11
Career record
Δ 1 pp
19-8
W8
Current streak
W5
13
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Ferguson: 54 sig / 0 TD ·
Lee: 55 sig / 3 TD
Tony Ferguson
Kevin Lee
65
Sig strikes landed
57
137
Sig strikes attempted
144
79
Total strikes landed
68
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.5
0.1
Takedowns attempted
5.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
34s
Control time
183s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
27-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
13 fights · 12-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
Blue corner
W5
Kevin Lee
"The Motown Phenom"
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—