Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Matt Schnell
Marco Beltran
69%
31%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
28
Age
Δ 4y
31
17-11
Career record
Δ 7 pp
8-7
L2
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Schnell: 38 sig / 0 TD ·
Beltran: 34 sig / 1 TD
Matt Schnell
Marco Beltran
26
Sig strikes landed
25
58
Sig strikes attempted
53
38
Total strikes landed
42
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
100s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Matt Schnell
"Danger"
17-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
Blue corner
L2
Marco Beltran
"Psycho"
8-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
—
W
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—