Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
John Moraga
Magomed Bibulatov
42%
58%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 0"
66"
34
Age
Δ 4y
29
20-7
Career record
Δ 14 pp
15-2
W1
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Moraga: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Bibulatov: 5 sig / 0 TD
John Moraga
Magomed Bibulatov
33
Sig strikes landed
42
82
Sig strikes attempted
94
48
Total strikes landed
71
0.9
Takedowns landed
2.8
3.0
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
112s
Control time
265s
Method
Decision
80%
KO/TKO
9%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
John Moraga
20-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
L
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
W1
Magomed Bibulatov
"Chaborz"
15-2
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—