Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Thales Leites
Brad Tavares
75%
25%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
36
Age
Δ 6y
30
29-9
Career record
Δ 13 pp
22-13
W1
Current streak
W2
10
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Leites: 46 sig / 0 TD ·
Tavares: 70 sig / 0 TD
Thales Leites
Brad Tavares
39
Sig strikes landed
39
91
Sig strikes attempted
92
57
Total strikes landed
56
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.8
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
228s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Thales Leites
29-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
Blue corner
W2
Brad Tavares
22-13
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—