Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Lauren Mueller
Kelly Velasco
55%
45%
Why
26
Age
Δ 4y
22
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mueller: 85 sig / 0 TD ·
Velasco: 34 sig / 0 TD
Lauren Mueller
Kelly Velasco
31
Sig strikes landed
32
67
Sig strikes attempted
71
65
Total strikes landed
56
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
172s
Control time
181s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Lauren Mueller
"Princess Tiger"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
Kelly Velasco
"Killer"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22