Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Don'Tale Mayes
Allen Crowder
53%
47%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Mayes: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Crowder: 45 sig / 2 TD
Don'Tale Mayes
Allen Crowder
36
Sig strikes landed
33
75
Sig strikes attempted
63
54
Total strikes landed
51
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
169s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Don'Tale Mayes
"Lord Kong"
0-0
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
Allen Crowder
"Pretty Boy"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28