Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Casey Kenney
Adam Antolin
77%
23%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 5"
63"
26
Age
Δ 9y
36
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Kenney: 75 sig / 0 TD ·
Antolin: 86 sig / 0 TD
Casey Kenney
Adam Antolin
58
Sig strikes landed
41
129
Sig strikes attempted
102
68
Total strikes landed
51
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.5
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
142s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Casey Kenney
17-4-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
DWCS 1.2
—
Blue corner
Adam Antolin
"Captain Chaos"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36