Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Grant Dawson
Adrian Diaz
90%
10%
Why
24
Age
Δ 6y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Dawson: 24 sig / 1 TD ·
Diaz: 3 sig / 1 TD
Grant Dawson
Adrian Diaz
42
Sig strikes landed
31
83
Sig strikes attempted
70
65
Total strikes landed
43
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
195s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Grant Dawson
"KGD"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
24
Blue corner
Adrian Diaz
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29