Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ricky Simon
Donavon Frelow
87%
13%
Why
25
Age
Δ 8y
33
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Simon: 48 sig / 14 TD ·
Frelow: 36 sig / 1 TD
Ricky Simon
Donavon Frelow
41
Sig strikes landed
30
82
Sig strikes attempted
68
59
Total strikes landed
46
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
173s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ricky Simon
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Donavon Frelow
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33