Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Everett Sims
Shelton Graves
65%
35%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Sims: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Graves: 27 sig / 4 TD
Everett Sims
Shelton Graves
30
Sig strikes landed
28
70
Sig strikes attempted
65
42
Total strikes landed
50
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
0.8
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
173s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Everett Sims
"Sexual Chocolate"
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
Blue corner
Shelton Graves
"The Gravedigger"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32