Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alex Perez
Kevin Gray
85%
15%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
25
Age
Δ 7y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Perez: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Gray: 10 sig / 0 TD
Alex Perez
Kevin Gray
41
Sig strikes landed
30
84
Sig strikes attempted
69
60
Total strikes landed
45
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
163s
Control time
166s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Alex Perez
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Kevin Gray
"Pocket Herc"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32