Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Peter Petties
Julio Arce
38%
62%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
27
Age
Δ 1y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Petties: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Arce: 63 sig / 0 TD
Peter Petties
Julio Arce
32
Sig strikes landed
39
85
Sig strikes attempted
78
41
Total strikes landed
56
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
116s
Control time
191s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Peter Petties
"The Joker"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
Blue corner
Julio Arce
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28