Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mike Rodriguez
Jamelle Jones
66%
34%
Why
82"
Reach
Δ 8"
75"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Rodriguez: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Jones: 4 sig / 0 TD
Mike Rodriguez
Jamelle Jones
36
Sig strikes landed
31
74
Sig strikes attempted
57
51
Total strikes landed
44
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
226s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mike Rodriguez
"Slo Mike"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
83"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
Blue corner
Jamelle Jones
"The Beast"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30