Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Austin Arnett
Brandon Davis
73%
27%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
26
Age
Δ 1y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Arnett: 105 sig / 0 TD ·
Davis: 134 sig / 0 TD
Austin Arnett
Brandon Davis
41
Sig strikes landed
35
83
Sig strikes attempted
74
53
Total strikes landed
47
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
138s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Austin Arnett
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
Brandon Davis
"Killer B"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27