Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Ronaldo Candido
Carlos Candelario
63%
37%
Why
28
Age
Δ 2y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Candido: 25 sig / 8 TD ·
Candelario: 58 sig / 0 TD
Ronaldo Candido
Carlos Candelario
34
Sig strikes landed
36
79
Sig strikes attempted
82
69
Total strikes landed
48
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.3
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
179s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ronaldo Candido
"Pacman"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
Blue corner
Carlos Candelario
"The Cannon"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26