Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
John Castaneda
Cheyden Leialoha
68%
32%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
26
Age
Δ 2y
23
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Castaneda: 48 sig / 2 TD ·
Leialoha: 28 sig / 2 TD
John Castaneda
Cheyden Leialoha
40
Sig strikes landed
36
78
Sig strikes attempted
77
56
Total strikes landed
69
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
139s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
John Castaneda
"Sexi Mexi"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
Blue corner
Cheyden Leialoha
"Steadfast"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23