Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
James Gray
Kyler Phillips
37%
63%
Why
30
Age
Δ 8y
22
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Gray: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Phillips: 14 sig / 0 TD
James Gray
Kyler Phillips
30
Sig strikes landed
35
63
Sig strikes attempted
67
43
Total strikes landed
53
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.60
128s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
James Gray
"The Phenom"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Kyler Phillips
"The Matrix"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22