Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Phil Hawes
Julian Marquez
67%
33%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
29
Age
Δ 1y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Hawes: 17 sig / 1 TD ·
Marquez: 35 sig / 0 TD
Phil Hawes
Julian Marquez
37
Sig strikes landed
35
77
Sig strikes attempted
74
51
Total strikes landed
46
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
139s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Phil Hawes
"No Hype"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Julian Marquez
"The Cuban Missile Crisis"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27