Main
Lightweight
Gregor Gillespie vs Jason Gonzalez
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch
·PPG Paints Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gregor Gillespie
Jason Gonzalez
75%
25%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
15-1
Career record
Δ 23 pp
12-5
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Gillespie: 20 sig / 4 TD ·
Gonzalez: 22 sig / 0 TD
Gregor Gillespie
Jason Gonzalez
28
Sig strikes landed
14
59
Sig strikes attempted
45
52
Total strikes landed
21
3.1
Takedowns landed
0.2
5.3
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
304s
Control time
12s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Gregor Gillespie
"The Gift"
15-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
Blue corner
W1
Jason Gonzalez
"Nicoya"
12-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
L
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—