Main
Middleweight
Hector Lombard vs Anthony Smith
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch
·PPG Paints Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Hector Lombard
Anthony Smith
62%
38%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 5"
76"
40
Age
Δ 10y
29
34-11-1
Career record
Δ 10 pp
39-22
L3
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Lombard: 65 sig / 1 TD ·
Smith: 35 sig / 0 TD
Hector Lombard
Anthony Smith
30
Sig strikes landed
38
58
Sig strikes attempted
83
40
Total strikes landed
47
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.2
3.5
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
197s
Control time
33s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
61%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Hector Lombard
34-11-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
40
In our database
9 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
Blue corner
W2
Anthony Smith
"Lionheart"
39-22
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—