Main
Welterweight
Kamaru Usman vs Sergio Moraes
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch
·PPG Paints Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kamaru Usman
Sergio Moraes
86%
14%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
30
Age
Δ 5y
35
22-4
Career record
Δ 16 pp
15-6-1
W5
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Usman: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Moraes: 13 sig / 0 TD
Kamaru Usman
Sergio Moraes
43
Sig strikes landed
25
82
Sig strikes attempted
64
73
Total strikes landed
40
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.2
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
265s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
22-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
Blue corner
W2
Sergio Moraes
"The Panther"
15-6-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
8 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
D
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—