Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Mike Perry
Alex Reyes
60%
40%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
26
Age
Δ 5y
31
W1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Perry: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Reyes: 6 sig / 0 TD
Mike Perry
Alex Reyes
42
Sig strikes landed
42
95
Sig strikes attempted
111
52
Total strikes landed
48
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
89s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mike Perry
"Platinum"
15-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
Blue corner
Alex Reyes
"The Executioner"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31