Main
Middleweight
Luke Rockhold vs David Branch
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch
·PPG Paints Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Luke Rockhold
David Branch
49%
51%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
33
Age
Δ 3y
36
16-7
Career record
Δ 10 pp
23-6
L1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Rockhold: 58 sig / 2 TD ·
Branch: 25 sig / 1 TD
Luke Rockhold
David Branch
30
Sig strikes landed
17
56
Sig strikes attempted
43
40
Total strikes landed
40
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.5
Takedowns attempted
5.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
83s
Control time
221s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Luke Rockhold
16-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
Blue corner
W1
David Branch
23-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
L
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
L
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—