Back to UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura
Main Welterweight

Jake Matthews vs Bojan Velickovic

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura ·Qudos Bank Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jake Matthews
Bojan Velickovic
79% 21%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
23
Age
Δ 6y
29
23-9
Career record
Δ 7 pp
15-7-1
L2
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Matthews: 20 sig / 4 TD · Velickovic: 24 sig / 1 TD
Jake Matthews
Bojan Velickovic
40
Sig strikes landed
31
89
Sig strikes attempted
79
56
Total strikes landed
50
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.4
5.3
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
216s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Jake Matthews

"The Celtic Kid"
23-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database 7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
L UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
Blue corner
L1

Bojan Velickovic

"Serbian Steel"
15-7-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database 5 fights · 2-2
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
L UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
D UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
W UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—