Main
Middleweight
Elias Theodorou vs Daniel Kelly
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura
·Qudos Bank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Elias Theodorou
Daniel Kelly
83%
17%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 5"
70"
30
Age
Δ 10y
40
16-4
Career record
Δ 8 pp
13-5
L1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Theodorou: 118 sig / 0 TD ·
Kelly: 42 sig / 2 TD
Elias Theodorou
Daniel Kelly
46
Sig strikes landed
37
110
Sig strikes attempted
88
66
Total strikes landed
50
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.1
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
180s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Elias Theodorou
"The Spartan"
16-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
Blue corner
L1
Daniel Kelly
13-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
40
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
W
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—