Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Tim Means
Belal Muhammad
43%
57%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
34
Age
Δ 4y
29
34-17-1
Career record
Δ 18 pp
25-5
W1
Current streak
W2
15
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Means: 91 sig / 0 TD ·
Muhammad: 88 sig / 1 TD
Tim Means
Belal Muhammad
54
Sig strikes landed
55
136
Sig strikes attempted
116
63
Total strikes landed
79
0.3
Takedowns landed
2.3
1.1
Takedowns attempted
7.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
29s
Control time
243s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
34-17-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
15 fights · 9-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
L
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
Blue corner
W2
Belal Muhammad
"Remember the Name"
25-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—