Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Nik Lentz
Will Brooks
66%
34%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
30-13-2
Career record
Δ 12 pp
18-5
L1
Current streak
L2
17
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Lentz: 34 sig / 0 TD ·
Brooks: 49 sig / 2 TD
Nik Lentz
Will Brooks
34
Sig strikes landed
35
68
Sig strikes attempted
60
66
Total strikes landed
53
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
6.1
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
255s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
30-13-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
17 fights · 10-5
Last 5
L
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
Blue corner
L2
Will Brooks
"Ill"
18-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—