Back to UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura
Prelims1 Flyweight

Ryan Benoit vs Ashkan Mokhtarian

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura ·Qudos Bank Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Ryan Benoit
Ashkan Mokhtarian
46% 54%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
10-9
Career record
Δ 24 pp
13-4
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Benoit: 45 sig / 0 TD · Mokhtarian: 42 sig / 0 TD
Ryan Benoit
Ashkan Mokhtarian
27
Sig strikes landed
22
58
Sig strikes attempted
43
46
Total strikes landed
38
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
117s
Control time
182s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Ryan Benoit

"Baby Face"
10-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
L UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
W UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
Blue corner
L1

Ashkan Mokhtarian

"The Assassin"
13-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
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