Back to UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami
Prelims1 Welterweight

Keita Nakamura vs Alex Morono

UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami ·Saitama Super Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Keita Nakamura
Alex Morono
79% 21%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
33
Age
Δ 6y
27
34-11-2
Career record
Δ 7 pp
24-13
L1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Nakamura: 27 sig / 2 TD · Morono: 38 sig / 0 TD
Keita Nakamura
Alex Morono
41
Sig strikes landed
47
112
Sig strikes attempted
95
59
Total strikes landed
67
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.2
5.9
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
223s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
80%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Keita Nakamura

"K-Taro"
34-11-2 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
W UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
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Blue corner
W2

Alex Morono

"The Great White"
24-13 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 3 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—