Main
Flyweight
Jussier Formiga vs Yuta Sasaki
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami
·Saitama Super Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jussier Formiga
Yuta Sasaki
49%
51%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
23-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
22-6-2
L1
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Formiga: 9 sig / 1 TD ·
Sasaki: 16 sig / 0 TD
Jussier Formiga
Yuta Sasaki
19
Sig strikes landed
23
45
Sig strikes attempted
52
39
Total strikes landed
37
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
238s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
49%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jussier Formiga
23-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
Blue corner
W1
Yuta Sasaki
"Ulka"
22-6-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
L
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—