Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Charles Byrd
Jamie Pickett
51%
49%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 7"
80"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Byrd: 13 sig / 1 TD ·
Pickett: 5 sig / 2 TD
Charles Byrd
Jamie Pickett
33
Sig strikes landed
40
65
Sig strikes attempted
81
50
Total strikes landed
55
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
153s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Charles Byrd
"Kid Dynamite"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
Blue corner
Jamie Pickett
"The Night Wolf"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29